India, China and USSR
This visit must not at any time make China feel that we have taken the Western path. We must also keep in mind that one group of Allies led by China, USSR and India can also give us Benefits. China today is orientated towards great Economic strides and is entering the world’s consumer market’s. This may initially hurt our growth but there is a lot to gain if China and India also sit together to iron out their differences as soon as possible if any
Indo US Relationship
One reads a lot over the last few days on the evaluation of the INDO – US Strategic / Economic relationship and its benefits for India.
There is confusion in the process of thought in our minds and hence the utter bankruptcy in our coming to a viable solution that is acceptable to us (INDIA) and no one else. What do we need basically? First we have to see what Economic measures we require which will boost our Military preparedness which can only be based on an analysis of the perception of the Threat that is posed to us due to our size and the geographical location in our Sub – Continent as also the strain of equipment usage – wear & tear in the J & K flood recently.
China with whom India shares a 3,780 Km long border would find a border war with India both difficult, expensive, and impossible to sustain given its international isolation and domestic aspirations. It is difficult for India to evaluate a realistic and sound Threat Perception for China, until our borders are demarcated and accepted by both Countries. At present India still has to deploy her troops to make aggressive adventurism an expensive and meaningless exercise for Pakistan or China.
The reality is that India’s positioning of troops on our borders to deny an Aggressor getting an inch of our territory is proving expensive. If some territorial losses and gains are accepted as inevitable consequences of war, and if any major Troop movements can be known to us which gives us enough time to rapidly redeploy troops on our Frontiers, then it would be a good diplomatic manoeuvre to pull our troops back to places where it is less expensive to maintain. It is imperative that we first get equipment which will pick up such movements and give us a head start in real time information.
As for Pakistan, it’s attitude will not change at least in the near future. Using Western compulsions, it has gone ahead with parity vis-a-vis India and it has a single objective of grabbing the Kashmir Valley and Destabilizing us. Pakistan however cannot make any long – term gains through a conflict with India. It would not be able to sustain this high level of preparedness due to her Internal problems but nor can India afford to relax its vigil against the Threat we face today.
With India’s present Economic condition, it would lead us to cut our Defense expenditure but without a reduction in Threat Perceptions. A cut in subsidies results in Internal Disturbances, while a change in investment patterns would divert resources from the core sector to consumer goods and housing after the Present Flood in J & K. It would ultimately weaken India’s need to seek self – reliance.
Added to these problems is the disintegration of the USSR. It used to be our main source for procuring Capital goods, Defense Equipment and Spares. The greatest challenge before us today is to manage the economy well, boost exports and not get into any further debt traps. If this is done, India can then revert to its policy for Industrialization. India could perhaps also export Defense Equipment produced by our PSU’s to reduce our trade deficits, which has been on the anvil since the last four decades.
Internally India must also decentralize itself, politically and economically. It should have a permanent Security set up with members who are Professionals in these spheres and who are directly answerable to the Prime Minister. It could however involve the concerned Departments for such a Security Formulation. Also needed is a National Security Commission, comprising Eminent persons, including retired Military experts, who can give a direction on Threat and Security matters. The National Security Council formulated must contribute information. Remember National Interests are Permanent, however Strategies can change to secure objectives that lie ahead. With India and Pakistan going nuclear the situation is rather explosive and dangerous.
India’s Stance with USA
I fail to understand as to where lies the confusion in the minds of our Politicians or Strategists for a viable dialogue to engage ourselves with US in the best interests of our Economic and Military requirements. We must remember that both India and US have shared interests but we must not at any cost give in to the US for deployment of our troops/flotilla in Strategic Areas which are of high priority with the US but do not face an immediate threat to us. The US under its new strategy, wants 60% of its Naval assets which include six sea – borne aircraft careers under its Pacific Area Command to be deployed in the South China Sea area and wants India to also join them. Would we be very concerned if 60% of the US Naval Fleet is scouting the South China Sea? We should welcome such a move if US desires to go ahead we shall be happy for them?
As far as China is concerned, we have a Border shared by both India and China which is approx 3780 km long and there are bound to be problems more so in our North and the North East Areas. Why do we want to precipitate matters by also allowing the US to go Digging The Ground in our North East Areas to exhume US soldiers bodies lost in world War II? Was the US not sensitive earlier – or is OBAMA really meaning to start to have DNA tests to authenticate the names of the soldiers and create more fuss for India and his US citizens? Let the Brave Soldiers who laid down their lives in the 40’s, – lie in “Eternal Peace” The Bravest of the Brave. What sentiments are these – I feel even in India no one would be keen to authenticate such a gruesome condition – as each day passes-the memories fade and those left behind, also go to lie in peace where their Ancestors have also gone. I would seriously not recommend India that we undertake such a decision where US personnel will go digging along the Border opposite the Chinese held positions in the North East Areas and make matters more difficult for China and India. Do we want the US troops to come to India’s rescue? No, ask them to provide us Amo & Military hardware which we require to ensure India’s Security. They provided a lot of Military Hardware to PAK – but they found it has all gone waste. We must assure the Americans that we will repay them and not let them down. We want latest Weaponry, for our Armed forces. Who gave this to us earlier? The USSR.
It is very important that to improve our Economy we should immediately willingly accept any help by the way of providing us latest technology and resources and to join us in Economic Ventures that we must undertake all over the Country for our Development and revival of our Economy.
US priority today is on South and Central Asia. OBAMA wants INDIA to be together in the New US thinking process. India needs to have sharper focus to improve its Economy by setting up industries in our various States which will give not only an export potential but improve the condition of the AAM ADMI by provision of work and money. We should certainly have Economic ties with the US as also a strategic dialogue. We are at the crossroads of International Partnerships. While Military Power remains important, Political, Economic and Cultural Structures are the increasing foundations of co-operation. We are optimistic that this path would lead towards a vibrant and responsive economic restructuring.
We must however not forget that China also is a growing Economic and Military Super Power. We have to balance our policies with the Western Countries like US on one side and China on the other. India and the US appear to have same goals. India want’s a faster economic growth and the people are optimistic that our friendship would lead to a vibrant and responsive economic structure. We also together are surely the Worlds largest DEMOCRACIES.
However India must not at any time make China feel that we have taken the Western path and this should be our goal. We must also keep in mind that one group of Allies led by China, USSR and India can also give us maximum results. China today is orientated towards great Economic strides and is entering the world’s consumer market’s. This may initially hurt our growth but there is lot to gain if China and India sit together to iron out their differences as soon as possible and cooperate.